A Ukrainian missile strike on Novorossiysk is presented as a case study in how Russia’s Black Sea Fleet remains vulnerable even after relocating major assets away from Sevastopol. The reconstruction focuses on three Neptun cruise missiles that reportedly targeted the large Project 775 landing ship Novocherkassk while it was positioned in what had been considered a relatively secure port.
Using open-source information, the analysis reconstructs the reported attack with a mock-up, examining the port’s defensive layout, radar coverage, and the missiles’ low-altitude approach. A key focus is the possible radar blind zone close to the sea surface, where terrain, sea clutter, and the limitations of detection systems can make low-flying cruise missiles difficult to identify in time. The reconstruction also examines a three-azimuth attack geometry, suggesting that approaching threats from different directions could complicate the work of air-defense operators.
The report contrasts these defenses with the systems commonly used to counter drones. Anti-drone nets, patrol boats, and other measures designed to stop small unmanned aircraft address a different threat profile and may provide limited protection against fast, low-level cruise missiles.
The financial loss is estimated at approximately $280 million, although the precise value and extent of damage would require independent confirmation. Beyond the ship itself, the analysis highlights a broader logistical consequence: losing a major landing vessel could force Russia to move substantial quantities of military cargo by land, increasing transportation demands and potentially creating additional vulnerabilities.
The reconstruction relies on publicly available satellite imagery, reported Neptun missile specifications, and communications from both Ukrainian and Russian sources, rather than classified information.
