FSB Expands Its Influence as Power Struggles Intensify Inside the Kremlin

Russian political analyst Vadym Denysenko has described growing tensions between the Federal Security Service (FSB) and Russia’s technocratic-bureaucratic establishment, arguing that the security agency is increasing its influence over the government. Speaking to Radio NV, Denysenko said recent arrests within the Federal Tax Service and changes to the government’s administrative leadership could signal mounting pressure on Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s political network.

According to Denysenko, Mishustin has lost a key ally, former deputy prime minister Dmitry Grigorenko, who also served as chief of the government staff. He argues that replacing Grigorenko with an outsider weakens Mishustin’s influence over government administration. The subsequent arrests of officials reportedly connected to Grigorenko have added to concerns about pressure on the prime minister’s circle.

Denysenko traces the current tensions to a broader shift in Russia’s power structure. He says Putin began moving away from an FSB-dominated system in 2016 by strengthening a parallel network of technocrats and bureaucrats, which helped Russia withstand economic pressure following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. According to his analysis, the Kremlin has increasingly shifted back toward the security services since 2025.

The analyst also describes competing factions within the FSB and identifies the decision over Director Alexander Bortnikov’s tenure as a significant upcoming test of the agency’s internal balance.

These developments point to possible changes in Kremlin power dynamics, but they do not establish that the FSB is preparing to remove Putin. Denysenko’s assessment remains an interpretation rather than confirmation of an imminent leadership challenge.