Armenia’s shifting foreign policy is raising serious questions about Russia’s longstanding influence in the South Caucasus. According to The Geo Network’s OSINT analysis, Yerevan is increasingly distancing itself from Moscow following growing dissatisfaction with Russia’s security commitments and the effectiveness of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Armenia has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian arms, with its share of Russian weapons supplies reportedly falling from approximately 96% in 2020 to below 10% by 2025.
The country is expanding defense cooperation with France and India, acquiring systems such as French CAESAR howitzers and Indian missile technology.
The report also examines Moscow’s economic pressure on Yerevan, including threats involving energy supplies and trade, as Armenia pursues closer ties with the European Union. However, Armenia remains economically connected to Russia, making a complete separation difficult.
Although Armenia has frozen its participation in the Russian-led CSTO, it has not formally withdrawn from the alliance. Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Gyumri also remains operational, and no confirmed decision to expel Russian forces has been established.
Beyond Armenia, the analysis considers Russia’s influence and security challenges in Moldova and Georgia. Overall, Armenia’s strategic diversification marks a significant change in the regional balance, but claims that Russia has permanently lost its influence in the South Caucasus remain premature.
